I normally write something on here every year talking about the Oscars. In the past I have done some movies that I thought should've been up for Best Picture and another talking about movies that should've won Best Picture. I thought I'd change it up this year and do some predictions. I'm not going to do all the categories because with some I have no idea what I'd pick so I'm going to stick with the categories that I have an opinion on. I'm also going to give a pick of who/what I think will win and who/what I want to win. I'm gonna pick with my heart for the most part anyway but some I might choose with some strategy. 2019 had so many amazing movies and I think this is the most excited about the Oscars I've been in several years because I could see like 4-5 winning Best Picture this year. Alright, let's talk movies!
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Want to Win - Parasite
Think Will Win - Parasite
This is such an expertly written movie! It really feels like a dark comedy/modern drama with a bit of horror splashed in there. It's one of those movies that the characters feel real and the situations feel real. It all makes so much sense by the end and it has an important message without shoving down your throat. Kinda blew me away how much I connected with this movie.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Want to Win - Little Women
Think Will Win - Jojo Rabbit
I'll admit that at the time of writing this I haven't seen Jojo Rabbit. It's the only big movie I didn't get around to seeing so I very well might've wanted it to win if I did see it. I did see Little Women though and it's very good! Like with Parasite, it felt real. I connected with every character and they were written so naturally. I also think that since the academy didn't nominate Greta Gerwig for Best Director that she might take this one. I hope so at least cause I feel she deserves it! It's harder to adapt something like this than I think some people realize.
Visual Effects
Want to Win - Avengers Endgame
Think Will Win - Avengers Endgame
I think this is a legacy award! Since it didn't get any of the big nominations I think it's a lock to take this one home. I mean, are they really not gonna give the people that brought Thanos to life an award! Cause Infinity War lost out to First Man last year. I'm not gonna be shocked if 1917 walks away with this award but I really don't think it will.
Sound Mixing/Sound Editing
Want to Win - Ford v Ferrari
Think Will Win - 1917
I'm gonna be honest here, I'm not sure what the difference between these are haha! I think that either of these movies could walk away with both or they could end up splitting them. I do think that the sound in both were fantastic but I really liked Ford v Ferrari and this is the only category I think it has a chance of winning. The racing scenes in that movie are amazing and the last like 40 mins of that movie is a race so that had to be very tough to pull off.
Production Design
Want to Win - Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Think Will Win - Parasite
I know a lot of people flipped when La La Land captured LA a few years ago but Once Upon a Time did that for me. The way each set looks and how LA looks in that movie is all amazing. I felt like I was experiencing a modern story in that time period and that's damn hard to do. On the other hand I heard that many sets in parasite were built from the ground up and that's impressive. It doesn't have many but they are all good and looked natural to the setting.
Music (Original Song)
Want to Win - Frozen 2 "Into The Unknown"
Think Will Win - Rocketman "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again"
So this is another case of me seeing one movie and not the other. But realistically I think I would want Frozen 2 to win here regardless. It's an amazing song and Idina Menzel is a powerhouse that could hand with the big dogs in music! I really think Rocketman is gonna win mainly to get Elton on stage and so he can bring an Oscar to his afterparty. I think Frozen 2 not being up for Best Animated Feature was a message that this show might be light on Disney.
Music (Original Score)
Want to Win - Joker
Think Will Win - Joker
This movie has won this award at all the other awards shows and I see no reason it won't win here as well. The music in the movie is amazing. Like, it fits perfectly with what this movie is trying to do. I actually found out that the music was made before the movie was filmed and the actors got to mold scenes around the music and you can kinda tell in certain scenes. The "becomes Joker" scene at the end is masterful and it's mostly in part to the music!
Makeup and Hairstyling
Want to Win - Joker
Think Will Win - Bombshell
I honestly think Bombshell is the more deserving movie but I loved the Joker makeup so much. It's simple but effective. And the way they made everyone look like the time period was also well done. But really, Charlize Theron being transformed into Megyn Kelly was so impressive. Even though it's subtle, she looked just like her and that should be awarded. I also think that John Lithgow as Roger Ailes was very impressive as well!
International Feature Film
Want to Win - Parasite
Think Will Win - Parasite
I mean, come on!
Film Editing
Want to Win - Parasite
Think Will Win - Parasite/The Irishman
The way the story flows in Parasite opens up to some awesome editing and makes the movie move so smooth. Especially late in the movie when things get crazy, the editing is spot on. For some reason I have it in my head that The Irishman has a chance to walk away with this one. Maybe it's because of how the story is told as well and how they are jumping back and forth and it never being confusing. I just find it hard to imagine that movie not winning any Oscars and this one could be the one.
Costume Design
Want to Win - Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Think Will Win - Little Women
I know that Little Women or Jojo Rabbit are more than likely gonna take this but I really want Once Upon a Time to win! I get that it's just clothes from that time but when I see the jacket that Leo was wearing by it's self I think of that movie and I'm not sure the other movies have that going on. It would just be me and a small group that think that but oh well.
Cinematography
Want to Win - 1917
Think Will Win - 1917
Again...come on! This movie is this! It's amazing and in contention for some of the best I have ever seen!
Animated Feature Film
Want to Win - Toy Story 4
Think Will Win - Klaus
I want to say upfront here that it sucks that Frozen 2 isn't up for this! I really don't know why it isn't cause it's one of the best looking animated movies I've ever seen but whatever I guess. I loved Toy Story 4. I cried twice and it can be argued it should've been up for Best Picture since Toy Story 3 was. I really liked Klaus too though. It surprised me how real and emotional that movie got and how they put a fresh spin on a movie about Santa. I'd like to see Toy Story 4 win but I'd be good with either.
Directing
Want to Win - Bong Joon Ho
Think Will Win - Sam Mendes
Man this category has some heavy hitters this year and there are ever more that deserved a nomination. I think they got the right five though but I'd listen to an argument that maybe Martin Scorsese didn't deserve it this time. Parasite is a master class movie and I think it deserves the directing award this year! The risks that movies takes and for them to pay off in the ways they do is a rare thing. Sam Mendes has been winning all the other awards for directing though and makes me think he might get it here. If he does then that's fine cause 1917 is an amazing movie and those single shot movies have to be directed in a different kind of way and he pulled it off. Parasite is just so good!
Actress in a Supporting Role
Want to Win - Florence Pugh
Think Will Win - Laura Dern
Laura Dern has been winning this at all the other shows so that's the main reason I think she will probably walk away with it here. She is very good in Marriage Story but she's just as good as Ray Liotta and since he didn't get nominated I kinda want someone else to win here. I love Florence Pugh just in general and would love to see her win here. I really think she deserves it more for her performance in Midsommar but we all know how the academy feels about most Horror movies. She almost steals Little Women and the movie focuses on her quite a bit towards the end so I'm not gonna be surprised if she wins this in an upset!
Actor in a Supporting Role
Want to Win - Brad Pitt
Think Will Win - Brad Pitt
It would probably be the upset of the show if he lost this. I think he's done a clean sweep everywhere else and I feel he deserves it. He absolutely steals every scene he has in this movie and it's one of his best performances in my opinion, It almost seemed natural and that's so damn hard to pull off. His character was so complex and I kind wish he was the main star instead of Leo. It's almost like Tarantino knew he had Brad Pitt for this role and wrote it specifically for him.
Actress in a Leading Role
Want to Win - Scarlett Johansson
Think Will Win - Renée Zellweger
I think that Scar Jo put on the best performance of her career and thinks she deserves this award. It's her first nomination and she should be in that rare category of first time nominee and first time winner. I'll admit I have not seen Judy but even if I had I doubt I'd feel different. Renée has swept the other shows so I imagine she will here too but man I'd rather she didn't.
Actor in a Leading Role
Want to Win - Joaquin Phoenix
Think Will Win - Joaquin Phoenix/Adam Driver
I think Joaquin's Joker is one of the best acting performances I've ever seen. It's such a dark take on the character and everything about it works. I'll admit to being a huge Batman fan so this just hit me right where I wanted it to. He's amazing! But even so, I have this feeling that Adam Driver might sneak a win here. I ultimately don't think he will but he might. Cause Marriage Story is a very relatable movie and some people might vote relatable over not. Plus, Joker was a big turn off for some people and they might not want to vote for it.
Best Picture
Want to Win - Joker
Think Will Win - 1917/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
God I want Joker to win so badly but I don't think it will. It does have the most nominations but that hasn't mattered the past few years and I don't think it matters here. I think Joker is an important movie dealing with real issues and rewarding it would be a big deal. 1917 and Once Upon a Time have pretty much split this award everywhere else. My gut wants to go with Once Upon a Time but my head is telling me 1917. Ya know, this has been such a great year for movies and they picked all the right movies for this award this year! Maybe adding in Avengers Endgame would've been the topper but can't have everything. I'd honestly been fine if any of the nominees won! How great would it be to have a movie like Marriage Story win and all the anti Netflix people would have to eat it! If I had to pick one though I'd go with Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood and that seems like the right choice to me. Love Joker though!
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